Measuring short-run uncertainty of outcome in sporting leagues a comment by Alistair Dawson

Cover of: Measuring short-run uncertainty of outcome in sporting leagues | Alistair Dawson

Published by Staffordshire University Business School in Stoke-on-Trent .

Written in English

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Edition Notes

Book details

Statementby Alistair Dawson and Paul Downward.
SeriesDivision of Economics -- 2003.5
ContributionsDownward, Paul., Staffordshire University. Business School.
ID Numbers
Open LibraryOL15521093M

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As pointed out in [Dawson and Downward, ], a series of methodological options/problems exist related to measurement of uncertainty of outcome. In the short run, and when team sport leagues are the candidate for analysis (as in our case), basically two options exist: table rankings or table point scores.

Dawson, A. and P. Downward “Measuring Short-Run Uncertainty of Outcome in Sporting Leagues A Comment.” Journal of Sports Economics 6(3)– Crossref Google Scholar. Dobson, S.

and J. Goddard. “The Demand for Standing and Seated Viewing Accommodation in the English Football League.” Applied Economics –Cited by: 5. Measuring Short-Run Uncertainty of Outcome in Sporting Leagues: A Comment. Alistair Dawson. Alistair Dawson. Staffordshire University Business School See all articles by this author.

Book Review: Golfonomics. Peter J. Sloane. Peter J. Sloane. University of. A TEST OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF OUTCOME HYPOTHESIS by Glenn Knowles, Keith Sherony and Mike Haupert* Abstract The relationship between attendance at major league baseball games and the uncertainty of the outcome of each game is examined.

We use an a priori measure of uncertainty in estimating the attendance equation. PDF | In this article, a new set of rules in professional handball, introduced in July are discussed. The discussion is aided by a reasonably broad | Find, read and cite all the research. Sports offer interesting insights into demand due to the added twist of fan preferences for outcome uncertainty.

We add to and amend previous work by analyzing the time series behavior of Major League Baseball attendance (–) using break point analysis, exploring a wide variety of measures of game uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, and consecutive season by: Short-Run Demand and Uncertainty of Outcome in Major League Baseball Scott Tainsky • Jason A.

Winfree Published online: 23 October Uncertainty of outcome is one of the fundamental differences between sporting events and other forms of entertainment.

Specifically, the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. Dawson A. and Downward P. Measuring short-run Uncertainty of Outcome in Sporting Leagues: A Comment, Journal of Sports Economics, Vol.

6, No. 3, August,pp   This article explores the importance of uncertainty in athletic contests. We use a probit model and Monte Carlo simulations to forecast game outcomes in Major League Baseball.

Simulations are necessary to understand fully the preferences that consumers have towards uncertainty in sports. We use these simulations to estimate demand using attendance data for regular season by: () use an ARFIMA model to generate long-run uncertainty bands for future inflation, but without accounting for parameter estimation uncertainty.

Two strands of literature study long-run forecast uncertainty for time series that we analyse by constructing series-specific Bayesian models. The hypothesis that a more balanced sporting competition leads to a greater interest in the event stems from the seminal work of Rottenberg ().This argument, known as the UOH, implies that fans prefer observing a sporting contest between teams with an unpredictable outcome (Knowles, Sherony, & Haupert, ).A sports league where the outcome of all matches are highly uncertain is Cited by: Short and Long Run Uncertainty Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Ian Wright.

NBER Working Paper No. Issued in August NBER Program(s):Asset Pricing, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Uncertainty appears to have both a short-run and a long-run component, which we measure using firm and macro implied volatility data Cited by: 7.

4 Downward et al. (), in their review of studies of short-run uncertainty of outcome, note that league standings, rather than differences in standings or odds-based measures, tend to show up as more relevant in explaining attendance.

However, actual standings are more a reflection of team success or team quality than of uncertainty of outcome.

Sloane () (short-run and long-run uncertainty) and Borland and Macdonald () (match, seasonal and long-run uncertainty). According to Cairns et al. (), short-run or match uncertainty relates to the outcome of a particular match; seasonal (playoff) uncertainty refers to championship.

Short and Long Run Uncertainty By Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, and Ian Wright potential consequences of long-run as opposed to short-run uncertainty in the wake of the enterprise value to the book value of it’s assets) and sales growth (again, measured as the.

The second edition of this popular book presents a detailed economic analysis of professional football at club level, with new material included to reflect the development of the economics of professional football over the past ten : Stephen Dobson, John Goddard.

This sample Sports Economics Research Paper is published for educational and informational purposes only. Like other free research paper examples, it is not a custom research paper.

If you need help writing your assignment, please use our custom writing services and buy a paper on any of the economics research paper topics. Sports Economics Paul Downward Alistair Dawson Trudo Dejonghe AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON • NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO • SAN FRANCISCO • SYDNEY • TOKYO.

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The full scope of the sports economy is examined, covering the three main arenas in which sport takes place. Brian Mills & Rodney Fort, "League-Level Attendance And Outcome Uncertainty In U.S.

Pro Sports Leagues," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pagesJanuary. Ferda Halicioglu, "Can We Predict The Outcome Of The International Football Tournaments: The Case Of Euro. According to Stewart and Smith (), sporting clubs and competitions are traditionally restricted to what economists would call fixed short-run supply, or a highly inelastic production curve.

The supply of the core sport product – for example, the on-field performance – cannot be increased in the same way that a manufactured good like a Cited by: "Short-Run Demand and Uncertainty of Outcome in Major League Baseball," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol.

37(3), pagesNovember. Seung C. Ahn & Young H. Lee & Peter Schmidt, JOURNAL OF SPORTS ECONOMICS / October activity of each club. Moreover, we choose to approach the definition of the wage equation from the perspective of the stochastic frontiers literature.5 This implies con- sidering a football club as a production unit that is involved in a production process.

a sing1e influence such as uncertainty of outcome. Finally, championship uncertainty has hardly ever been tested, although the evi- dence comparing the relative long-run imbalance of European soccer to the North American leagues suggests that this is an issue worthy of in~esti~ation.~%n.

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Avgerinou () states that uncertainty of outcome is necessary in the short run, which is provided by a high competitive balance, to attract people (i.e. customers) to matches and generate gate and broadcasting revenue.

However, in my opinion this is of greater relevance to profit-maximizing agents but less to agents maximizing sporting results. However, uncertainty of outcome can be measured in different ways and may refer to short-run uncertainty of match outcome, seasonal uncertainty in terms of how many teams remain in contention for.

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Modern Microeconomic Analysis for Business Strategy Fixed costs are inherently a short run concept. purchased goods – movie theaters, sporting events, etc. – is the presence of venues.

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Many writers have emphasized that strategy is the outcome of a. Using results from 9, matches in both leagues over 27 seasons between /88 and /16 we find that short run competitive balance in both leagues declined following the introduction of professionalism inbut improved in Premiership Rugby following the introduction of revenue-sharing and a binding salary cap in /.

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